Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for New Mexico

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for New Mexico in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for New Mexico in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 75.9% for New Mexico for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.015) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.256).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.5618 7.31%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.5489 -1.69%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.1356 -2.10%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.0369 -0.29%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.0323 -1.94%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.4493 3.66%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.0092 -0.22%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.0249 0.21%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0009 -0.01%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.1162 0.58%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0194 -0.23%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.5101 -6.41%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.1827 -2.23%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0369 0.36%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.0904 -0.70%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.1006 1.73%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0221 -0.32%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.5037 9.89%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.1873 2.37%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.0166 -0.30%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0406 1.18%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.0000 0.00%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.0507 -0.48%
Low Income 0.0081 0.5083 0.41%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0074 -0.04%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.0065 0.10%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0037 -0.07%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.6347 11.99%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.0268 0.04%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.0470 -0.07%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0037 0.05%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.1744 1.08%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0037 0.18%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.0249 -0.12%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0037 -0.01%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.0129 0.06%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 0.6430 1.42%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 170.0000 -3.11%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0443 9.43%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0609 5.25%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.0336 0.64%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0152 -8.11%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0407 -19.81%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.1357 50.99%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2610 21.49%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.1357 -12.11%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0260 11.79%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0732 16.22%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0495 3.38%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $7,359 for New Mexico for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 44897) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-37538).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.5535 -$1,572
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.5473 -$472
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.1343 -$422
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.0336 -$178
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0236 -$143
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.4627 $108
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.0062 -$27
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.0224 -$52
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0000 $0
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.1082 -$291
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0174 $122
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.5199 $188
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.1704 $141
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0336 -$44
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.0883 $498
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.1082 $438
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0224 $191
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.5634 $544
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.1779 $644
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.0124 -$12
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0299 -$40
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.0000 $0
Single Parent 145.7630 0.0510 $7
Low Income -332.4067 0.4714 -$157
Homeless -446.4262 0.0050 -$2
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.0062 $13
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0000 $0
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.7065 $571
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 5200.7300 $1,900
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.0211 $43
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.0423 $29
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0037 -$10
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.1642 $150
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0025 $38
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.0199 $2
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0012 -$7
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.0100 $8
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 0.6182 -$127
Median Days in Program 3.2489 165.0000 $536
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0443 $1,067
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0609 $1,970
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.0336 $1,319
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0152 -$733
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0407 $166
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.1357 $13,130
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2610 $14,658
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.1357 $7,826
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0260 $280
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0732 $2,904
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0495 -$302

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 63.6% for New Mexico for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 5.823) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-5.187).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.6056 -21.88%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.5551 28.96%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.0922 -0.65%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0314 -3.13%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0219 6.39%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.4437 -64.14%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0131 2.80%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.0350 -1.98%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.1400 11.92%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0187 3.69%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.4918 -5.99%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.2052 -3.78%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0489 0.36%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.1010 -8.63%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.0879 -1.76%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0243 4.46%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.5006 18.26%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.2767 -8.43%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.0262 -0.69%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0342 0.86%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.0064 0.56%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.0867 1.85%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.0115 0.90%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.6346 -0.08%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.0247 0.16%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0032 0.00%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.1821 -2.36%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0107 0.53%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.0119 -0.34%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 0.7761 5.68%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 184.0000 6.53%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 167.0000 -4.07%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.0819 -0.07%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0443 44.39%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0609 54.42%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.0336 40.75%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0152 -66.71%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0407 129.14%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.1357 102.81%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2610 259.13%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.1357 35.03%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0260 85.60%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0732 -1.05%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0495 -67.12%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 72.3% for New Mexico for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.772) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.495).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.5139 3.06%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.5737 1.09%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.2271 -0.38%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.1036 1.10%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.0438 -0.84%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.1753 2.08%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.0080 -0.23%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.0199 -0.07%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0040 0.35%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0837 -0.82%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0120 -0.23%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.3865 -1.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.2390 -4.64%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0637 -1.15%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.1195 -1.08%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.0797 -1.15%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.0558 -0.67%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.1474 1.56%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.1434 -0.36%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0080 -0.04%
Veteran 0.0056 0.0677 0.04%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0000 0.00%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.0359 0.16%
Low Income -0.0518 0.4343 -2.25%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0000 0.00%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0080 0.30%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0199 -0.45%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.8088 9.15%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.0199 0.11%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.5857 1.22%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.0518 0.38%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.2470 1.23%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0080 -0.39%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.0080 -0.10%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0040 0.32%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 0.9482 -4.86%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 298.0000 0.24%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0443 -8.96%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0609 -2.85%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.0336 -5.74%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0152 -15.07%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0407 -25.54%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.1357 -48.89%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2610 -52.06%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.1357 -38.70%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0260 7.92%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0732 9.00%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0495 2.04%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $7,813 for New Mexico for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 35471) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-27658).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.4972 -$945
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.6077 $678
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.2155 -$27
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.0884 -$188
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.0331 -$83
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.1823 -$156
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.0055 -$26
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.0166 -$25
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0000 $0
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0773 -$272
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0055 -$21
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.4254 -$596
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.2265 -$431
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0718 $6
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.1105 $169
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.0608 $71
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.0442 $95
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.1436 $244
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.1547 $586
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0110 $3
Veteran 1445.8344 0.0608 $88
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0000 $0
Single Parent -784.4348 0.0497 -$39
Low Income -538.7097 0.4475 -$241
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0000 $0
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0110 $20
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0110 $2
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.8287 $17
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 8091.1700 $742
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.0276 $37
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.5801 $40
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.0663 -$165
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.2652 $47
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0055 $37
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.0110 $5
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0055 -$12
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0000 $0
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 0.9392 -$379
Median Days in Program 2.2222 269.0000 $598
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0443 -$1,207
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0609 $2,234
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.0336 $1,586
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0152 -$3,961
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0407 $3,496
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.1357 $12,895
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2610 $13,356
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.1357 $5,968
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0260 -$118
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0732 $1,631
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0495 -$287

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 62.0% for New Mexico for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 4.656) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-4.036).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.5629 -8.50%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.5629 -3.69%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.1991 4.81%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.0915 4.19%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.0595 5.44%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.2952 -19.62%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.0137 -0.73%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.0366 -1.21%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0847 22.41%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0183 0.09%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.4050 -7.78%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.2128 -5.07%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0801 -2.09%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.1327 3.48%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.1213 -1.36%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.0297 -1.27%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.0778 -0.17%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.1808 -4.78%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0114 -1.66%
Veteran -0.9235 0.0801 -7.40%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0023 0.10%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.0320 1.18%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0046 0.21%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.7757 2.22%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.0206 0.80%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.0526 1.87%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.1419 -0.87%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0023 -0.10%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0023 -0.89%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 0.9634 -9.28%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 213.0000 -6.84%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 177.0000 -4.84%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.0732 1.19%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0443 -35.81%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0609 27.12%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.0336 33.12%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0152 -89.35%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0407 49.65%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.1357 217.88%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2610 186.96%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.1357 20.52%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0260 170.10%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0732 -20.85%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0495 -53.60%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 63.6% for New Mexico for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.229) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (1.866).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.5702 3.39%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0043 0.05%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.2592 -3.72%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.3801 -7.81%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.1836 0.19%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.7127 -4.47%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0000 0.00%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.0281 -0.12%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0043 -0.23%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.0799 -2.67%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.0108 0.16%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.4082 2.82%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0086 -0.27%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0065 0.74%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0022 0.11%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.0864 2.37%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.1965 0.70%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.0583 -0.27%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.0259 -0.36%
Low Income 0.0375 0.9006 3.38%
Homeless -0.2008 0.0194 -0.39%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.0238 0.15%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0000 0.00%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.1922 -1.38%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.7451 2.60%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.0065 -0.06%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.0022 -0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.3715 1.64%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.2009 -3.03%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0086 0.06%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0086 -0.03%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0022 0.01%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.0022 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 0.6004 0.89%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 194.0000 -0.78%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0443 -30.08%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0609 -11.46%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.0336 -4.57%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0152 -11.11%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0407 -8.70%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.1357 -34.69%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2610 0.64%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.1357 -5.35%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0260 -28.11%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0732 24.16%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0495 -7.36%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $3,198 for New Mexico for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 15008) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-11810).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.5685 -$1,067.34
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0034 -$0.32
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.2260 -$295.88
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.3904 -$416.36
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.1884 $122.34
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.7603 $1,454.75
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0000 $0.00
Race: Black -886.3703 0.0137 -$12.14
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0034 -$11.60
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0788 -$14.53
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.0034 $3.20
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.4452 $616.14
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0068 -$5.67
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0103 $1.78
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0034 $22.85
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.0959 $58.86
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.2021 $110.36
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.0445 -$22.05
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.0205 $50.47
Low Income -305.7985 0.8801 -$269.14
Homeless 983.9044 0.0240 $23.59
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.0205 -$26.40
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0000 $0.00
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.2021 $172.66
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.7397 -$209.70
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.0068 -$4.32
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.0034 -$1.58
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.3973 $64.03
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.1986 -$36.56
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0068 -$11.36
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0068 -$3.70
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0034 $0.36
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.0000 $0.00
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 0.6438 -$17.95
Median Days in Program 0.5942 192.5000 $114.38
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0443 -$140.60
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0609 $670.11
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.0336 $724.61
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0152 -$844.22
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0407 $1,823.87
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.1357 $1,929.57
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2610 $5,317.06
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.1357 $961.96
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0260 $1,485.15
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0732 $3,190.85
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0495 -$499.69

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 48.1% for New Mexico for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 4.233) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-3.752).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.5392 -14.87%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0030 -0.24%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.2781 -25.10%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.4388 -30.70%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.1697 -27.83%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.6596 -1.12%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0070 -0.01%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.0341 0.01%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.1155 -1.82%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.0120 2.38%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.4116 -11.08%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0131 1.37%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0040 -0.26%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0020 0.38%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.2922 0.64%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.7861 15.54%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.0060 0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.3112 -2.22%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.0753 2.06%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0100 0.56%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.0040 -0.36%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 0.6928 -3.48%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 158.0000 -5.16%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.0924 -3.18%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0443 33.81%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0609 58.35%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.0336 19.60%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0152 -65.16%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0407 -57.98%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.1357 196.46%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2610 184.35%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.1357 85.49%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0260 132.40%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0732 -53.76%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0495 -5.78%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 63.5% for New Mexico for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.365) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.73).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.4967 3.98%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.4477 4.86%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.1945 -1.67%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.0960 -0.07%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.0991 -0.62%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.3469 8.07%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0059 -0.14%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.0293 -0.47%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0029 0.28%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.1015 -3.11%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0131 0.32%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.4123 -0.71%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.2072 0.80%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0480 -0.20%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0681 2.38%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.0849 -5.75%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0326 -1.71%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.2021 1.75%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.1170 -1.06%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.0507 -1.80%
Veteran 0.2170 0.0787 1.71%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.0002 0.00%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.0060 0.12%
Low Income 0.0926 0.0764 0.71%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0083 -0.06%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0023 0.04%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0032 -0.07%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.6819 21.64%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.0052 -0.08%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.3004 -1.16%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0138 -0.12%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0115 -0.12%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0002 -0.22%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0026 -0.03%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0017 0.19%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0030 -0.17%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 47.0000 -1.30%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0443 7.47%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0609 9.39%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.0336 3.40%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0152 -0.70%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0407 12.07%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.1357 12.80%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2610 33.49%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.1357 8.03%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0260 10.16%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0732 12.45%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0495 1.70%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $5,168 for New Mexico for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 41358) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-36190).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.5225 -$1,450
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.4676 $714
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.1941 $43
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.0909 $157
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.0779 $311
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.3511 $529
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0061 -$8
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.0273 -$80
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0028 -$7
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.0940 -$523
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0132 $141
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.4186 -$738
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.2089 -$455
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0471 -$103
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.0708 $148
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.0825 $6
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0283 -$142
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.2362 $108
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.1161 -$134
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0376 -$192
Veteran -913.8967 0.0636 -$58
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.0002 $0
Single Parent 660.1018 0.0060 $4
Low Income 634.4633 0.0703 $45
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0057 -$20
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0021 $4
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0025 -$27
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.7688 -$169
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 5398.7600 $1,410
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0042 $3
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.3056 $139
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0129 $3
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0131 -$8
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0002 -$4
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0028 -$3
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0011 $12
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0030 $5
Median Days in Program 0.8717 49.0000 $43
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0443 $1,642
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0609 $2,606
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.0336 $1,603
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0152 $172
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0407 $2,549
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.1357 $9,212
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2610 $13,439
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.1357 $5,838
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0260 $1,084
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0732 $3,761
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0495 -$252

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x